Exports are becoming a reality and the return of market volatility is upon us. Day 3 will take a close look at the outlook for propane, coal and LNG exports, including global demand and price forecasts. The second half of Bentek’s “North American BTU Tipping Point” will be featured and will be followed up with additional insight from key industry participants. The afternoon will feature two concurrent breakout tracks with sessions on the gas, crude, NGL and LNG markets, allowing attendees to customize their day and focus on the commodities and regions that have the greatest impact on them.
7:00 Registration and Buffet Breakfast
8:30 Introduction to Day 3
8:45 Bentek Analytical Feature: The North American BTU Tipping Point, Part 2
Manager, Oil Analysis and Consulting Services
9:30 REX: Shale to Shining Shale
- Global demand and prospects for absorbing North American supply
- Propane export market outlook and NGL price forecast
- Coal export market outlook and price impact
- LNG export market outlook and price forecast
Rockies Express Pipeline LLC
10:00 Volatility and the New Fundamentals of Supply and Demand
Vice President, Fundamentals and Supply Appraisal
11:00-4:00 Breakout Sessions (see below)
5:00 Reception at close of event
- Long- and short-term drivers of the great switch
- Structural shifts: Gas market share in the power sector
- Are coal and fuel oil done for? Opportunities to capture peaking demand
- Gas-electric coordination, constraints and other risks
- Industrial demand wildcard
- Coal vs. LNG: Competing for exports?
- Global LNG supply: Liquefaction, capacities, new builds and North American exports
- Global LNG demand: Market shifts to the Pacific, South America and does Europe need LNG?
- Global LNG balance: Will the global market be undersupplied?
- Pricing outlook: Oil linkage vs. Henry Hub pricing, the spot market evolution and forecasts and the potential impact of nuclear re-starts in Japan on global demand and prices
- Shipping: Will existing ship orders be adequate for upcoming liquefaction capacity growth?
- What is the expected global balance for LNG?
- How will exports affect the U.S. gas price?
- The shifting import/export relationship; U.S. takes less from Canada, sends more to Mexico
- The demand groundswell: industry and power burn will cut into supplies
- Equilibrium production: what is the national break-even price of natural gas?
- Regional balances: Northeast becomes a supply zone, Southeast/West go net short, Mexican demand more than triples
- Price supporting and capping forces
- U.S. gas plant NGL production increases through 2023
- Growing NGL production from the Marcellus and Utica will transform market dynamics and flow patterns in the Northeast
- Williston Basin: The wild card
- Growing production in the Rockies and Midcontinent will flow south to demand centers and export terminals
- An infrastructure boom in the Eagle Ford will support NGL production
- Ethane rejection outlook
- NGL barrel composition shifting as new infrastructure comes online
- Marcellus & Utica floodgates
- The LNG backstop and potential for price spikes
- Power demand constraints and opportunities
- Infrastructure and expansions overview
- Northeast downstream demand prospects (Marcellus outflows to E. Canada, Midcon and the Southeast)
- Competing wet gas supply (Anadarko, Bakken expansions)
- REX turnaround?
- Ethane long – but for how long?
- Exports to serve as a balancing mechanism for growing supplies for propane, butane and natural gasoline
- Growing demand from the U.S. petrochemical sector
- Mt. Belvieu purity product forecast through 2023
- Eagle Ford production shakes up Texas flows
- Texas flow corridors: West vs. East vs. Mexico
- Cotton Valley prospects
- Premium Southeast constraints and expansions
- LNG exports vs. power demand
- Timing the Haynesville comeback
- Canadian vs. U.S. production growth
- Pipeline and refinery constraints
- Crude-by-rail: Impact on Bakken
- Bakken prospects vs. Alaska North Slope
- Bakken drilling trends
- Displacing light crude from the East Coast
- Bakken price forecast
- California dreamin’ – the new premium market
- Mexico’s insatiable appetite
- Shale gas: A white whale for the West?
- Emerging pipeline capacity constraints and opportunities
- SoCal: The new Algonquin?
- Storage value with a twist
- Ethane rejection and West production
- U.S. South supply growth
- Cushing vs. Brent price spread expectations
- Louisiana light sweet vs. Brent forecast
- Cushing and U.S. Gulf Coast connectivity
- Challenging imports
- Cushing/Gulf Coast price forecasts